A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
